Onset of monsoon in Kerala delayed by a week leading to delay in sowing and yet together momentum in most of the states. IMD has forecasted near normal monsoon, however El Nino is not ruled out completely and may spoil the chances of normal monsoon, which may impact kharif crop and domestic availability of vegetable oils in next oil year 2023-24.

The government announced sizable increases in the minimum support price (MSP) for kharif crops in the season 2023/24 on June 7. The increases of kharif oilseeds of Groundnut Rs.6377 per quintal from 5850, Sunfloweseed Rs.6760 (Rs.6400), Soybean (yellow) Rs. 4600 (Rs.4300), Sesamum Rs. 8635 (Rs.7830) and Nigerseed Rs. 7734 (Rs.7287). Currently Rapeseed is quoted at Rs. 5100 per quintal against MSP of Rs. 5450 per quintal. In Haryana, Sunflowerseed price fallen much below MSP of Rs. 6400 per quintal sparkling farmer protests.

Reduction in Import Duty of Refined Soybean and Sunflower :

Government of India vide Notification No.39/2023-Custom dated 15th June, 2023 reduced the import duty on Refined Soybean and Sunflower Oil from 17.5% to 12.5%. Now all major Crude Oils i.e. CPO, Sunflower Oil, Soybean Oil attract 5.0%. The effective duty for Crude Oils are 5.5% , while their Refined Oils attract 12.5% import duty plus Cess on Social Welfare at 10% on import duty, the effective duty is 13.75%. Currently there is no import of refined soybean and sunflower oil.

Basically Government wants to keep the price of edible oil under check. Even with lesser duty difference between crude and refined soya and sunflower oil, chances of shipment of refined soya and sunflower oil  may not be commercially viable but have some temporary sentiment impact on market.

The Import of Vegetable Oils (edible & non-edible) for the month of May, 2023 reported at 1,058,263  tons compared to 1,061,416 tons in May 2022,  consisting 1,053,265 tons of edible oils and 4,998 tons of non-edible oils i.e. marginally down by 0.30% The overall import of vegetable oils during first seven months of the oil year 2022-23, i.e. Nov’22.-May’ 23 is reported at 9,168,644 tons compared to 7,768,990 tons during the same period of last year i.e. up by 18%.

 Import of Vegetable Oil (Edible & Non-edible) Nov.’22 – May ’23, (Qty. in  MT)

Month 2022-23 2021-22 %
Change
Edible Non-edible Total Edible Non-edible Total
Nov.’22 1,528,760 16,780 1,545,540 1,138,823 34,924 1,173,747 (+) 32%
Dec.’22 1,555,780 10,349 1,566,129 1,216,863 9,823 1,226,686 (+) 28%
Jan.’23 1,661,750 -- 1,661,750 1,251,926 18,802 1,270,728 (+) 31%
Feb.’23 1,098,475 16,006 1,114,481 983,608 36,389 1,019,997 (+)  9%
Mar.’23 1,135,600 36,693 1,172,293 1,051,698 52,872 1,104,570 (+)  6%
Apr.’23 1,021,672 28,517 1,050,189 900,085 11,761 911,846 (+) 15%
May ‘23 1,053,265 4,998 1,058,263 1,005,547 55,869 1,061,416 (-) 0.30%
Total 9,055,301 113,343 9,168,644 7,548,550 220,440 7,768,990 (+) 18%

Jumped in Soybean and Sunflower Oil Import in May 2023 :

India’s May 2023 import of vegetable oils is marginally up by 0.8% compared to April 2023. Palm Oil import down by 10% to 4.39 lakh tons from 5.10 lakh tons, however Soybean oil import is up by 21% to 3.19 lakh tons from 2.62 lakh tons and Sunflower oil is import jumped by 18% to 2.95 lakh tons from 2.49 lakh tons.

Domestic Stock :

The Stock of edible oils as on 1st June.,2023 at various ports is estimated at 738,000 tons (CPO 193,000 tons, RBD Palmolein 123,000 tons, Degummed Soybean Oil 154,000 tons and Crude Sunflower Oil 268,000 tons) and pipeline stock  considering domestic production and consumption reported at 2,203,000 tons, The total stock  as on 1st June, 2023 reduced to 2,941,000 tons due to lower import during May 2023.

Current Stock Position at Ports & Pipelines: (Qty. in ‘000 M.T.)

  1st
June
2023
1st
May
2023
1st
Apr.
2023
1st
Mar.
2023
1st
Feb.
2023
1st
Jan.
2023
1st
Dec.
2022
1st
Nov.
2022
1st
Oct.
2022
1st
Sept.
2022
1st
Aug.
2022
1st
 July
2022
1st
June
2022
Port Stock 738 736 978 1050 1261 1042 800 647 729 611 595 600 484
Pipelines 2203 2509 2469 2375 2152 1959 1868 1808 1852 1755 1682 1644 1762
Total Stock 2941 3245 3447 3425 3413 3001 2668 2455 2581 2366 2277 2244 2246

Import of Refined Oil Rising :-

Import of RBD Palmolein is rising fast. The overall refined oils (RBD Palmolein) reached at 13% which was 5% in 2020-21 and 3% in 2019-20 only.

Import of Refined & Crude Edible Oils (Ratio) Nov.’22 – May.’23, (Qty. in MT)

Year (Nov.-Oct) Refined Oils % Crude Oils % Total
Nov., 2022 202,248 13% 1,326,512 87% 1,528,760
Dec., 2022 256,398 16% 1,299,382 84% 1,555,780
Jan.,2023 173,754 10% 1,487,996 90% 1,661,750
Feb.,2023 187,236 17% 911,239 83% 1,098,475
Mar.,2023 169,462 15% 966,138 85% 1,135,600
Apr.,2023 112,248 11% 909,424 89% 1,021,672
May ,2023 85,205 8% 968,060 92% 1,053,265
Nov.’22 – May ’23
Nov.’21 – May ’22
1,186,552
1,021,677
13%
14%
7,868,749
6,526,873
87%
86%
9,055,301
7,548,550
2021-22 1,840,540 13% 12,189,300 87% 14,029,840
2020-21 686,340 5% 12,445,171 95% 13,131,511
2019-20 421,340 3% 12,754,106 97% 13,175,446
2018-19 2,730,881 18% 12,182,526 82% 14,913,407

Sharp increased of Palm Oil Import :-

During Nov.’22 to May ’23, import of palm products sharply increased due to price parity and reported at 5,348,396 tons compared to  3,739,783  tons of same period of last year. The share of palm oil increased to 59% from 50% while soft oils import reduced. However in last two months, shipment of sunflower and soybean oils sharply increased and reported for first seven months of the current oil year at 3,706,906 tons compared to 3,808,767 tons last year.  The share of soft oils reduced to 41% from 50%.  

Import of Palm Oil & Soft Oil (Ratio) Nov,’22 – May ’23 (Qty. in MT)   

Year
(Nov-Oct)
Palm Oil Soft Oil % Total
(RBD Palmolein + CPO
+ Crude Olein + CPKO)
Soybean Sunflower Rape Others Total
Nov.,2022 1,141,678 75% 229,373 157,709 --- --- 387,082 25% 1,528,760
Dec., 2022 1,109,246 71% 252,525 194,009 --- --- 446,534 29% 1,555,780
Jan.,2023 833,667 50% 366,625 461,458 --- --- 828,083 50% 1,661,750
Feb.,2023 586,007 53% 355,840 156,628 --- --- 512,468 47% 1,098,475
Mar.,2023 728,530 64% 258,925 148,145 --- --- 407,070 36% 1,135,600
Apr.,2023 510,094 50% 262,455 249,122 --- --- 511,577 50% 1,021,672
May 2023 439,173 42% 318,887 295,206 --- --- 614,093 58% 1,053,265
Nov.’22-May ’23
Nov.’21-May ’22
5,348,396
3,739,783
59%
50%
2,044,630
2,579,998
1,662,276
1,228,769
---
---
---
---
3,706,906
3,808,767
41%
50%
9,055,301
7,548,550
2021-22 7,914,626 56% 4,171,535 1,943,679 --- --- 6,115,214 44% 14,029,840
2020-21 8,320,537 63% 2,865,619 1,893,578 51,777 --- 4,810,974 37% 13,131,511
2019-20 7,217,357 55% 3,384,054 2,518,999 55,036 -- 5,958,089 45% 13,175,446
2018-19 9,409,248 63% 3,094,113 2,350,875 59,171 -- 5,504,159 37% 14,913,407

Country-wise Import of Palm & Soft Oil:

Indonesia and Malaysia are the major suppliers of RBD Palmolein and Crude Palm Oil to India. During Nov.’22-May ’23, Indonesia was the major supplier and accounted for 1,799,287 tons of CPO (44%) and 935,207 tons of  RBD Palmolein (79%) followed by Malaysia of 1,462,764 tons of CPO (36%) and 223,392 tons RBD Palmolein (19%) and Thailand of 661,345 tons of CPO (16%) and 11,499 tons of RBD Palmolein (1%). In the case of Crude Soybean Degummed Oil; India imported 1,151,097 tons from Argentina (56%) followed by 807,353 tons from Brazil (39%) while for Crude Sunflower Oil Russia supplied 444,717 tons (27%) followed by 391,064 tons from Ukraine (24%) and 193,835 tons from Argentina.

Country-wise Import of Edible Oils Nov.’22 – May ’23 (Qty. in MT)

Country RBD
Palmolein
Crude
Palm Oil
Crude Palm Kernel Oil Crude
Soybean Oil
Crude Sunflower Oil Crude
Rapeseed Oil
Total
Indonesia 935,207 1,799,287 2,000 -- -- -- 2,736,494
Malaysia 223,392 1,462,764 30,838 -- -- -- 1,716,995
Thailand 11,499 661,345 19,006 45,500 -- -- 737,350
Argentina -- -- -- 1,151,097 193,835 -- 1,344,932
Brazil -- -- -- 807,353 12,000 -- 819,353
Ukraine -- -- -- -- 391,064 -- 391,064
Russia -- -- -- 31,654 444,717 -- 476,371
Others 16,454 185,853 750 9,026 620,660 -- 832,743
Total 1,186,552 4,109,250 52,594 2,044,630 1,662,276 -- 9,055,301
Nov’21-May’22 1,021,677 2,671,170 46,936 2,579,998 1,228,769 -- 7,548,550

Average Prices and Rupee appreciation : (Price in US$/CIF Indian Port/Ton)

Oils May
2023
Apr
2023
Mar
2023
Feb
2023
Jan
2023
Dec
2022
Nov
2022
Oct
2022
Sept
2022
Aug
2022
July
2022
June
2022
May
2022
RBD Palmolein 915 1025 1006 1002 982 995 1028 947 942 1079 1097 1519 1769
Crude Palm Oil 938 1039 1024 1015 997 997 1024 938 946 1103 1120 1557 1811
Crude  Soybean Oil 999 1049 1155 1274 1285 1326 1461 1362 1296 1447 1413 1686 1889
Crude Sunflower Oil 957 1036 1108 1224 1295 1322 1445 1411 1329 1571 1621 1941 2134
Crude Rapeseed Oil 985 1042 1155 1316 1384 1418 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.
FE: 1US$  =(Average) 82.30 81.97 82.26 82.60 81.74 82.47 81.68 82.29 80.25 79.50 79.59 78.09 77.29

Import of Non-edible Oils :

P.F.A.D., RBD Palm Sterain and P.K.F.A.D are the major non-edible oils being imported by the Soap and Oleo-chemical industry. Import of Non-edible oils during Nov.’22–May ’23 is reported at 113,343 tons compared to 220,440  tons during the same period of last year i.e. down by 49%.

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