The global beef market, first of all, will be affected by food inflation, which will affect the availability of beef. This trend is relevant for almost all countries, including North America.
In the Middle East, beef is an important and in-demand product, and the demand for this type of meat is formed due to the following factors: the growth of disposable incomes of the population, a large percentage of the Muslim population, a high level of urbanization, increased attention to healthy nutrition, a significant number of wealthy expats, as well as a developed catering sector.
In many countries, including the UAE, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait, almost all beef consumed is imported. The development of tourism and the restaurant sector are among the most important factors stimulating the demand for beef, and the desire of consumers for a Western lifestyle is an additional incentive.
For example, American and European cuisine is highly appreciated in the countries of this region: many steakhouses and fast food restaurants are opening, despite the limited functioning of many restaurants and cafes during the pandemic, has long been entrenched and has become a favorite pastime among consumers.
Taking into account the high level of disposable incomes of the population, premium beef (Wagyu, Black Angus, etc.) is also in high demand, and consumers are open to new dishes and culinary experiments. An important factor influencing demand is also the fact that consumers in this region traditionally prefer more lean meat, which is considered to be best suited for slow cooking. Minced beef is often used to prepare authentic local dishes, such as kebabs, kufte, shawarma, and lump meat is used for soups, pilaf.
The countries of the Asian region are among the largest in terms of beef consumption and production, largely due to China and India. In developed countries, there is an increasing trend towards the consumption of premium products, when consumers are willing to pay a high cost for a quality product.
In many countries, beef is considered a premium protein product, which is highly appreciated for its nutritional properties and excellent taste.
On the other hand, the complexity in cooking and the peculiar taste of beef prevent more frequent consumption of this meat. The factor that influenced the growth in demand for beef was the outbreak of ASF, which affected the food culture of consumers, shifting their preferences from pork to cattle meat. In many countries, for example in the Republic of Korea, Japan, Singapore, beef is the basis of local dishes, which is another indicator that affects the formation of demand for this meat.
As for premium beef bran, the following trends can be distinguished: in China, the most popular are brisket, chuck roll, striploin and tenderloin, in the Republic of Korea — chuck roll, ribai, tenderloin, in Japan — striploin, tenderloin, ribai, and the highest demand for beef offal is noted in Indonesia, the Republic of Korea, Japan and Hong Kong.
The amount of beef consumed in African countries has a regional character. There is a greater demand in the northern part of the region, where Islam is the main religion for the most part and where the hotel and restaurant sector is largely developed. The growth of disposable incomes of the population and the growth of urbanization form the demand for premium meats, including beef. Moreover, recently the majority of wealthy consumers have been actively visiting premium segment stores, where a large selection of premium meat products is presented. The development of the Western-style catering sector also generates demand for beef semi-finished products and food preparations, and the openness of consumers to imported products and the desire of the younger generation for new tastes is an additional factor in the demand for meat products, including beef, which is not a familiar product.
According to the USDA, global meat production in 2022 amounted to 274.3 million tons, which is 2.9% higher than in 2021. The indicator of 2022 is a record for 2017-2022 and exceeds production in 2017 by 6.1%. According to the USDA forecast, in 2023, global meat production will grow to 276.2 million tons.
Pork is in the first place in the structure of world meat production. In 2022, according to USDA data, its production volumes are estimated at 113.8 million tons, which is 5.7% higher than in 2021. Outbreaks of ASF in 2019-2020 had a huge impact on the production and consumption of pork in the world. In 2019, the world leader — China produced 11.5 million tons of pork less than in 2018, and in 2020, the volume of Chinese production decreased by another 6.2 million tons. In this regard, global pork production in 2020 for the first time in many years fell below the 100 million tons mark.
Over the past six years, poultry meat has demonstrated the most stable growth rates, the volume of which in 2022 is estimated at 101.1 million tons, which is 0.6% higher in 2021. The USDA predicts that poultry meat production in 2023 will reach 102.9 million tons.
The global beef production as a whole shows positive dynamics. A decrease in production due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic was observed only in 2020. In 2022, production volumes are estimated at 59.4 million tons, which is 1.7% higher than in the previous year. Nevertheless, according to the forecast data of the USDA, in 2023 beef production will decrease slightly to 59.2 million tons.
The world leader in beef production is the USA. The USDA estimates that in 2022, beef production in the United States amounted to 12.9 million tons, which is 1.3% higher than in 2021. There is a stable dynamics of production growth in the country. Even under the conditions of restrictions on the activities of enterprises and the actual closure of the catering sector in 2020, growth only slowed down, but did not stop. Nevertheless, beef production is expected to decline in 2023, due to high slaughter rates leading to a decrease in average slaughter weight, and a shortage of livestock to maintain last year's production volumes.
Brazil occupies the second place in the structure of world beef production. In 2022, production volumes are estimated at 10.4 million tons, which is 6.2% higher than in 2021.
On average, in 2017-2022, production grew by 1.2% per year. The decrease in the indicator occurred in 2020 and 2021 as a result of a reduction in the number of livestock and the introduction by China of a ban on the import of beef from Brazil. The restoration of livestock and the lifting of the ban allowed the country to increase production to a record level during the period under review. According to USDA forecasts, beef production in Brazil in 2023 will continue to grow and will amount to 10.6 million tons.
China is rapidly increasing beef production, and since 2021 It is one of the three world leaders. In 2022, production amounted to 7.1 million tons, which is 2.1% higher than in 2021 and 12.3% higher than in 2017. The beef market in China is concentrated among small producers who do not have access to efficient means of production, which limits the growth potential. In addition, local beef competes with cheap imported meat. Nevertheless, despite the small share occupied, large manufacturers are actively investing in the modernization of equipment, and the government promotes the construction of new manufacturing enterprises. These measures, as well as high prices for beef products, contribute to the growth of beef production in China, which, according to USDA forecasts, will grow to 7.4 million tons in 2023.
The top 10 global beef producers also include EU countries, India, Argentina, Mexico, Australia, Canada and Russia. Global beef consumption in 2022, according to USDA estimates, amounted to 57.4 million tons, which is 0.9% higher than in 2021. During the period under review, beef consumption in the world increased by 6.1% compared to 2017.
The largest consumer of beef is the United States. According to USDA estimates, beef consumption in the country reached 12.8 million tons in 2022. In 2023, high beef prices and the growing financial burden on American households will lead to a shift towards the consumption of cheaper animal protein (poultry meat) and a significant reduction in beef consumption to 12.2 million tons.
Beef consumption in China continues to grow at a high rate of an average of 7.8% per year. Since 2018, the country has overtaken Brazil in terms of consumption and has become the second in the world. Consumption volumes in 2022 are estimated at 10.6 million tons, which is 5.7% higher than in the previous year. Nevertheless, the new wave of COVID-19 and the economic challenges associated with it will lead, according to USDA forecasts, to a decrease in growth rates to 2.8%, in 2023 consumption will amount to 10.9 million tons.
