China continues to reinforce its domestic livestock production capacity while moderating meat imports, according to the latest Livestock and Products Semi-Annual report released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in February 2026.
The report highlights a steady recovery and expansion of China’s livestock sector in 2025, particularly in pork and poultry, as the country prioritizes food security, supply stability, and reduced dependence on foreign suppliers.
Rising Domestic Meat Production
Total meat production in China exceeded 100 million metric tons in 2025, reflecting solid year-on-year growth. Pork production reached approximately 59.4 million tons, increasing by over 4 percent compared to the previous year. Poultry output showed even stronger momentum, rising by nearly 7 percent to around 28.4 million tons. Beef production also expanded modestly, reaching about 8 million tons.
The continued growth in poultry production reflects structural changes in consumer preferences and production efficiency. Poultry remains the most cost-competitive animal protein, with shorter production cycles and lower feed conversion ratios compared to pork and beef.
Milk production remained relatively stable at just over 40 million tons, indicating a mature but cautiously expanding dairy sector.
Import Trends: Cooling Demand for Foreign Meat
While China remains one of the world’s largest meat importers, the USDA report projects moderated import volumes in 2026.
Beef imports are expected to decline due to tariff-rate quota mechanisms and weaker domestic demand growth. Imports exceeding quota limits may face higher tariffs, reducing the incentive for additional purchases. At the same time, improved domestic production and sufficient inventories are easing immediate supply pressures.
Pork imports are also forecast to remain subdued. After several years of volatility caused by African swine fever and herd rebuilding cycles, China’s pork sector has stabilized. Strong domestic output reduces the need for large-scale foreign procurement, although niche imports may continue to serve premium or specialty market segments.
Structural Adjustments and Industry Consolidation
The report notes that expansion in cattle inventories is limited by profitability concerns and environmental constraints. Feed costs, land availability, and policy-driven sustainability requirements continue to shape production decisions.
Meanwhile, the poultry sector benefits from industrialization, improved genetics, and vertical integration. Large-scale producers are consolidating market share, increasing efficiency and traceability across supply chains.
China also continues investing in livestock genetics and biosecurity to enhance resilience against disease outbreaks. While imports of live breeding cattle and genetic materials persist, volumes remain controlled and strategically managed.
Implications for Global Trade
China’s shift toward stronger domestic production has direct implications for global meat exporters. Although the country will remain a key destination market, growth in import demand is no longer guaranteed.
Exporters may face intensified competition, particularly in commodity segments such as frozen beef and pork. However, opportunities remain in premium products, specialized cuts, and value-added categories. Suppliers with strong branding, food safety credentials, and differentiated offerings may retain competitive advantages.
Moreover, China’s long-term protein demand remains substantial due to its population size and urban consumption patterns. Short-term moderation in imports does not eliminate structural demand, but it signals a more selective and policy-driven purchasing approach.
Outlook
Overall, the USDA report suggests that China’s livestock sector is entering a phase of stabilization and efficiency optimization rather than rapid expansion. The strategic emphasis is clearly on strengthening domestic supply chains, improving productivity, and managing imports through policy tools.
For global agricultural stakeholders, understanding these structural shifts will be essential for navigating trade relations with the world’s largest meat consumer in the years ahead.
