The BRICS summit to be held in Kazan in the fall will consider Turkey's application for full membership in the organization. In case of a positive decision, Turkey will become the first NATO member country to join the organization.
Malaysia also aspires to become a member of BRICS. The possible entry of major regional economies into the informal economic association plays into the hands of Moscow, which wants to create an alternative to the economic associations of the “collective West”. However, despite the growth of mutual trade, the BRICS expansion may “dilute” the union, which has many contradictions among its member states.
“Turkey has applied for full membership. We will consider it,” presidential aide Yuriy Ushakov told Interfax.
Recently, the BRICS format has become attractive to various states around the world. Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, Egypt and the UAE have joined the organization, but in the case of Turkey, it is the first time a NATO member country will join the association.
Turkey is one of the largest economies in the region, with close ties to the US and the EU, and its entry into BRICS, where Russia holds the presidency this year, is a tactical victory for Moscow. For Ankara, possible accession to BRICS means “seeking to build alliances beyond the West,” Bloomberg writes.
It is worth noting that Ankara has been trying to join the EU since the 1990s, but the negotiation process has actually led nowhere. According to Bloomberg experts close to the country's leadership, today Turkey sees BRICS membership as an important trump card, as “the geopolitical center of gravity is shifting from developed countries” to developing countries.
Moscow is likely to lobby Turkey, with which it has major economic ties, to join BRICS. At the same time, it is possible that the Kremlin hopes that BRICS membership will smooth out foreign policy contradictions between Moscow and Ankara.
Turkey's possible entry into BRICS comes amid Ankara's deteriorating relations with the West. “The move comes at a time when Turkey's relations with the West, especially the United States and the European Union, have become strained over a number of issues including defense, human rights and regional conflicts. By working more closely with BRICS, Turkey seems to be signaling its willingness to explore alternative alliances that will better serve its national interests,” Middle East portal Al Monitor wrote.
Yuri Mavashev, director of the Center for Modern Turkish Studies, notes in a conversation with Finam.ru that by joining BRICS, Ankara wants to “balance its developed relations with the West, especially with its American partners, by participating in the structures of the Global South. "Meanwhile, I consider it premature to conclude that the Turks give an unambiguous advantage to interaction with the Global South. Economically, he and his institutions are still building up their muscles. The EU accounts for almost half of Turkey's foreign trade turnover. Yes, the country expects to receive well—known economic preferences - access to the BRICS market. Turkey's accession to the BRICS does not bode well for Russia. Including the political one," the expert says.
Malaysia, an economically developed country in Southeast Asia, is also interested in joining the BRICS, having submitted its application at the end of July. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the Russian president “has no right” to give an answer to the question of accession, as these issues should be resolved “in a consolidated manner”. At the same time, he made it clear that the expansion of the organization will be discussed at the summit in Kazan.
Another country that also expresses interest in joining BRICS is the Latin American state of Bolivia. “I believe there has been a very important turnaround in the world after the crisis caused by the pandemic. There is a political, climate, energy, food crisis, water shortage crisis, so we really need new alternatives like BRICS, which represent a really great opportunity to confront all the crises that the world is going through today,” that country's foreign minister, Celinda Sosa, told RIA Novosti.
Moscow, which is no doubt delighted by the interest in the alliance in which it sees a “counterweight” to the collective West, makes it clear that there are “limits” to expansion. “There is a proposal to work out the status of a BRICS partner state. Accordingly, it is up to all of us to determine together how many of these partners there can be, who can be partners, and so on. This will all be discussed in Kazan,” Peskov told reporters.
Many experts also see danger in BRICS expansion, as it could dilute the organization, which has an informal status. Unlike the EU, BRICS lacks common political institutions and a common currency, although there is talk of creating one. The only full-fledged financial institution is the BRICS Bank, which Algeria has recently joined. However, the country is not a member of the organization.
Fortune states that “Yet BRICS still has very few achievements to its name. For example, the bloc does not have any formal trade or investment agreements”. Fortune also recalls the contradictions that exist between two BRICS member countries, India and China.
Meanwhile, economic integration among BRICS member countries is growing. As noted in the previously published HSE study “BRICS: Sustainability, Convergence, Inclusiveness”, trade ties between BRICS member countries increased by 33% from 2017 to 2022. The maximum close ties, the researchers write, emerged among such BRICS partners as India-South Africa (closeness value of 7.5), China-South Africa (9.9), Brazil-China, and Russia-China (12.9 each). “The maximum distance of trade closeness among all possible partnerships was recorded for Russia with South Africa (the closeness value was 66.4, being the largest of all established) and India (54.8).
Discussing the future of BRICS, some economists see the association as a group representing the interests of the “Global South”. India, China and Russia, which are trying to dominate the alliance, have expressed interest in such an idea. “In recent years, South-South cooperation has become an important channel for fostering global sustainable development, and the BRICS’ policy towards it is visible through India and China’s bilateral thrust towards less developed countries in Africa. In the case of India, for instance, the country’s development cooperation strategy with Africa is based on African countries’ priorities.,” according to the US-based think tank Stimson.
But the question of what is more important for BRICS - expansion or development - remains open.
