In recent years, Kazakhstan's economy has been characterized by consistently high real GDP growth rates, despite the high risks associated with insufficient diversification and dependence on the oil and gas sector. Nevertheless, the country is implementing structural reforms aimed at reducing state participation in the economy, improving the business environment, and stimulating competition, which will allow it to tap into other sources of sustainable growth.
At the end of 2024, Kazakhstan's real GDP growth rate was 4.8%, slightly down from the previous year amid stagnant oil production volumes. At the same time, there was growth in other sectors of the economy, including agriculture and services, as well as construction and transportation.
In the medium term, economic growth is expected to remain within the range of 4-5%. The key factor influencing the forecast remains the situation on the hydrocarbon market. A slight increase in growth of 2 percentage points in 2025 is forecast due to the expansion of the Tengiz oil and gas field. However, growth is expected to slow down by 2026. Achieving higher growth rates will depend on the success of the government's structural reforms.
Despite a decline in inflation compared to the peak levels of 2022-2023, the figure remained high at 8.7% at the end of 2024. At the same time, the disinflationary trend has already been replaced by an inflationary one, which is expected to lead to an increase in price growth in the medium term. In this regard, the National Bank of Kazakhstan is pursuing a tight monetary policy, resuming key rate hikes since the end of 2024. As of September 2025, the key rate is set at 16.5%.
