Joint military action by the US and Israel in Iran has led to an escalation of tensions in the Middle East. The Iranian government's radical response, involving the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital transport corridor for international oil and gas trade, has already led to a sharp rise in the prices of these commodities.
However, this is only part of the problems that the global economy and stock markets may face. Experts warn that the continuation of military conflict and the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz will lead to serious disruptions in supply chains, fuel shortages, and higher inflation, which will negatively affect the economies of many countries and could lead not only to an energy crisis but also to a global crisis.
What are the dangers of the Iranian crisis? What are the risks to the global economy? Will the energy crisis that many have long feared come to pass? Are there threats to the banking sector? Finam explored these and other questions with experts.
Risks and threats
According to ING analysts, dependence on oil and gas makes the European Union “the most vulnerable major economy” to the consequences of the conflict with Iran. According to Bloomberg, the next four weeks (which is how long Donald Trump says his strikes on Iran will last) will determine whether the European economy will face a new crisis or whether the situation in the Middle East will merely be an obstacle to its recovery. Experts note that a longer campaign risks undermining the incipient recovery in the eurozone and reawakening the inflationary forces that the ECB has fought so hard to combat.
This year, the situation in Europe looked promising: increased government spending in Germany and other countries was expected to support further moderate economic growth, and inflation was generally in line with the ECB's 2% target. However, the escalation of the conflict could disrupt this trajectory.
Despite the likely blow to the European economy, the surge in commodity prices will in any case be a net inflationary factor, and traders now estimate the probability of the ECB raising interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point this year at 50%.
Moreover, investors fear that rising inflation could affect the Fed's monetary policy decisions. US stock markets have been trading in the red for several days now. At the same time, panic is spreading across many global stock markets. In particular, banking sector stocks have been hit hard in Europe, while South Korean stocks have recorded their biggest two-day drop since 2008. The KOSPI index lost about 10% today after falling 7.2% during trading on Tuesday.
Overall, the specter of the 2008 global economic crisis has reappeared on the markets. Earlier this year, American economist Peter Schiff warned of an impending economic crisis, which, according to him, could make the events of 2008 look like “a walk in the park.” He said that rising gold and silver prices are just an early sign of distrust in traditional financial instruments.
Now the situation has become even more tense. The rapid rise in energy prices will cause the global economy to face accelerating inflation, which will lead to a decline in consumer demand and an increased risk of recession in importing countries.
This will be difficult not only for Europe and the US, but also for China. As Bloomberg notes, China, as the world's largest importer of oil and gas, is one of the most vulnerable countries against the backdrop of the conflict in the Middle East — in December, almost half of its imported crude oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz.
Should we expect an energy crisis?
Sergey Pigarev, senior analyst at Freedom Finance Global, does not expect an energy crisis due to military action in the Middle East. According to him, there has been no significant increase in gas prices in the US, and at the largest gas hub in the US, Henry Hub, the closing price on Tuesday, March 3, was 17% lower than at the beginning of 2026. At the same time, next week, US gas storage facilities will switch from gas withdrawal to injection due to lower demand caused by warmer weather. The expert also notes that gas consumption declines in the spring throughout the Northern Hemisphere, and May typically sees the lowest level of gas demand for the year.
"Qatar, in turn, accounts for about 20% of global exports. 80% of exports are not affected by transportation problems through the Strait of Hormuz. LNG takes several weeks or more to reach buyers by sea, and LNG supplies will continue at the same level until at least mid-March. According to data from the US Department of Energy as of February 20, 2026, the US has accumulated enormous commercial and government reserves of oil (436 and 415 million barrels, respectively) and petroleum products (830 million barrels). Therefore, the US can partially compensate for the loss of Middle Eastern volumes," Pigarev notes.
At the same time, according to an analyst at Freedom Finance Global, it is necessary to take into account the seasonal decline in demand for oil in the second half of spring. As a rule, refineries undergo repairs in April-May, which reduces demand for oil. "It is also necessary to take into account the likely increase in production in OPEC+ countries. At a meeting on March 1, OPEC+ countries decided to increase oil production quotas in April by 206,000 barrels per day. Countries may continue to increase quotas at this rate through September 2026 and increase production quotas by 1.2 million barrels per day this year. Let us recall that in 2025, OPEC+ increased quotas by 2.9 million barrels per day, which led to a surplus of “black gold” on the market," Pigarev commented, answering questions from Finam.
Meanwhile, Artem Nikolaev, founder of the Telegram channel Invest Era, believes that Trump plans to end the conflict in 2-3 weeks, otherwise he will face serious problems, and the Republican Party will lose some of its support and risk losing the election in the fall. In this regard, the expert does not think that a prolonged energy crisis is to be expected.
Overall, it is still difficult to say with certainty that a crisis is inevitable. This is according to Svetlana Frumina, Ph.D. in Economics and head of the Department of Global Financial Markets and Fintech at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. Nevertheless, the expert notes that there are a number of factors that could trigger it: conflicts in key energy-exporting regions, coupled with the growth in the energy intensity of digital technologies, sanctions pressure, disruptions to supply routes, rising costs, etc. In her view, many factors of the energy crisis are currently at play almost simultaneously, reinforcing one another and creating problems for the global energy sector.
What lies ahead for the global economy, and should we fear the onset of a banking crisis?
According to Artem Nikolaev, there is a possibility of a global economic collapse, but only if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked for an extended period. “A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz lasting more than a month would cause oil prices to rise above $120 per barrel and lead to a global economic collapse. European and Asian countries will be the first to suffer," the expert believes. At the same time, he emphasizes that a banking crisis could also result from a prolonged blockade of the strait.
However, Svetlana Frumina of the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics does not yet expect a systemic banking crisis. According to her, a banking crisis depends on bad debts, high interest rates, rising delinquencies, etc., and within a single country, a crisis can begin against the backdrop of a growing share of non-performing loans, an increase in loan defaults, high interest rates, and other factors. Nevertheless, as Frumina notes, this does not indicate a systemic banking crisis, which can only be triggered by major economies such as the United States.
That said, the banking sector may still face certain challenges. For example, Igor Dodonov, an analyst at Finam Group, states that the banking business is heavily dependent on economic conditions and financial market trends; therefore, a significant deterioration in the situation could lead to a decline in customer activity and demand for banking products and services, increased losses from the revaluation of investment portfolios, and a negative impact on capital positions. “However, at the moment, the banking sector in the major leading countries appears to be fairly stable, and I would not expect a banking crisis just yet, unless, of course, something truly extraordinary happens,” he commented.
At the same time, Olga Belyenkaya, head of the macroeconomic analysis department at Finam, emphasizes that the situation in the Middle East is highly unstable and changes literally every day, so it is still too early to assess its consequences for the global economy. In fact, the IMF stated this yesterday as well: “At the moment, we are seeing disruptions in trade and economic activity, a sharp rise in energy prices, and volatility in financial markets.”
According to Belenkaya, it became clear in the very first days of the military operation that its consequences would be more severe than those of the 12-day war between the U.S., Israel, and Iran last June, when the impact was limited to a short-term spike in the military premium on oil prices. “Military actions in the Middle East represent a supply shock for the global economy—rising energy costs, the physical disruption of certain critical global supply chains, and increased demand for safe-haven assets in financial markets. Possible consequences include higher prices for producers and consumers, a decline in household purchasing power, and a slowdown in economic growth. In the event of a sharp and sustained rise in energy prices, the more vulnerable segments of the global economy could slip into stagflation, and an economic crisis cannot be ruled out. “But this scenario is far from inevitable,” Belenkaya believes.
According to her estimates, the European economy is the most vulnerable to an escalation in the Middle East, followed by the economies of Southeast Asia and, to a lesser extent, the United States (which has become a net exporter of energy resources over the past 10 years, although consumers bear the costs in the form of higher gasoline prices).
“For now, we can only speculate about the consequences within the framework of scenarios, as Bloomberg Economics does, for example. According to their estimates, a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz would lead to oil prices rising to approximately $108 per barrel. In an extremely severe scenario, they expect prices to remain at this high level until the fourth quarter of the year. However, Bloomberg Economics assesses the probability of such a scenario as below average. It considers scenarios involving a limited military conflict or a ceasefire to be more likely.
In the first scenario, hostilities continue without any new major attacks on energy infrastructure or prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices hover around $80 per barrel. Inflation expectations remain stable. Inflation rises moderately—by about 0.3 percentage points in the U.S. and about 0.5 percentage points in the U.K. and the eurozone. There is no significant damage to economic growth. In this case, central banks may not react to the temporary supply shock associated with the military conflict. In the second scenario (a ceasefire, a truce between the U.S. and Iran), supply disruptions ease. The price of oil falls to $65 per barrel. Disinflation continues, central banks maintain their previous course, and risks to the global economy disappear,” Belyenkaya believes.
