On February 7th, Rosstat reported that Russia's GDP grew by 4.1% in 2024. This update also included revised estimates for previous years: growth for 2023 was adjusted from 3.6% to 4.1%, while the decline in 2022 was revised from -1.2% to -1.4%. The economy has now maintained a growth rate above 4% for two consecutive years (2023 and 2024).
By the end of 2024, the real money supply stood at 80.44 trillion rubles (in 2021 prices), slightly surpassing the forecast made in February of the previous year (79.76 trillion). This suggests a stronger economic performance than anticipated, which could justify raising the GDP forecast for 2025.
However, the revised data also indicates that GDP grew faster than previously estimated in both 2022 and 2023, suggesting that more growth potential has already been utilized. This provides a counter argument for lowering the 2025 GDP forecast.
Current projections estimate that GDP in 2025 will reach 148.9 trillion rubles (in 2021 prices). Government forecasts predict a 2.5% GDP growth in 2025, while the IMF forecasts a more modest 1.4% increase.
The Russian Central Bank's outlook for 2025-2027, however, suggests a significant slowdown, with GDP growth expected to drop to less than 1% per year.
