On January 29, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger officially withdrew from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). The trio of states had earlier officially notified the community of their withdrawal from the organization. The countries said they were withdrawing due to disappointment with the organization's policies. At the same time, all three states, which have experienced military coups in recent years, are actively strengthening military cooperation with Moscow. The mineral-rich continent is once again, as it was during the Cold War, becoming a place of rivalry between the powers that now have to reckon with Africa's own interests.
The outgoing US President Joe Biden managed to visit Angola just a month before the end of his presidency. During his time in the White House, Biden virtually ignored African content, unless you count his trip to Egypt in November 2022 for an international climate conference.
The trip to Angola, now a fast-growing African economy, was rather symbolic for the outgoing president. However, it was, as Al Jazeera TV notes, to “counter China's growing influence on the continent.”
Over the past few years, China has indeed become a major player in key African countries, issuing multi-billion dollar loans, investing in major infrastructure projects, and investing in natural resource extraction. Experts estimate that African countries account for 7% of direct investment by the PRC, which has helped create 13% of jobs on the continent. Beijing's top five economic partners include South Africa, Nigeria, Congo, Egypt and Cote d'Ivoire.
While direct investment by the PRC was a modest $75 million in 2003, it will reach $5 billion in 2022. The PRC has also pledged $51 billion in aid to Africa over three years.
It cannot be said that the Biden administration, realizing the growing Chinese influence in Africa, completely ignored trade relations with countries on the continent. According to the U.S. State Department, the previous administration concluded 1,695 different trade deals worth $63.5 billion in 41 African countries.
The US warns Africa not to do business with rivals
According to American experts, the new US administration is likely to continue strengthening trade relations with Africa. At the same time, however, the new administration is making it clear that it wants African states to have less interaction with US rivals in the region. In one of his articles, President Trump's new representative for Africa, Peter Pham, noted that he expects African countries to “reciprocate”: recipients of U.S. aid “do not engage in activities that undermine the national security or foreign policy interests of the United States”.
The warning sounds very unambiguous, as this is the year when the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) trade program, which gave significant trade preferences to Africa, expires. Many experts believe that the renewal of the program could become a certain leverage for the US to exert pressure on the African continent.
It is worth noting that one of the continent's leaders, BRICS member South Africa, received the most criticism from the U.S. diplomat. As Pham notes, the Biden administration ignored the fact that the biggest beneficiary of the AGOA program, South Africa, has been actively building ties with major U.S. rivals China, Russia and Iran. “Pretoria is positioning itself in Moscow's orbit,” the diplomat wrote. This, he says, is a concern for members of Trump's team.
African countries want to join the UN Security Council
South Africa took over the presidency of the G20 this year, and this country will hold a large-scale summit of the organization in the fall. African leaders do not hide the fact that they want to use this opportunity not only to expand the political and economic agenda, but also to achieve permanent representation of Africa in the UN Security Council. Support for this initiative comes from UN Secretary General António Guterres, who said in December 2024 that the two countries will soon become permanent members of the UN Security Council.
Congolese Foreign Minister Theresa Kayikwamba Wagner believes that a seat on the Security Council will provide an opportunity to have an “equal discussion,” which she said at a panel discussion on Africa at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
Her speech was devoted to a rather sensitive topic: the struggle of various paramilitary groups for valuable mineral resources. “Armed groups do not exist in a vacuum,” the minister said, adding that they are supported by major international players. She also cited media articles and reports by international human rights organizations that describe the use of child labor in mines extracting cobalt, a valuable element used for lithium-ion batteries. As noted in numerous articles by human rights defenders, the use of child labor is actively resorted to by US bigtechs.
In December 2019, Washington-based human rights organization International Rights Advocates filed a lawsuit against Google, Apple, Tesla, Microsoft and Dell on behalf of parents and children from the Democratic Republic of Congo. However, justice could not be achieved: in March 2024, the US federal court rejected the claims of human rights defenders.
It is possible that under the Trump administration, where, in the words of former President Biden, an “oligarchy” is playing an increasing role, the role of American companies in mining by methods that are far from legal standards will only increase. However, the U.S. has also been accused by China of using child labor in African mines. In November 2023, hearings on this issue were held in the U.S. Congress.
Russia is also engaged in mining in Africa, and, as previously the U.S., uses various private military companies, officially not affiliated with the authorities, to protect production facilities. The most famous of them was PMC “Wagner”, working in Libya, Sudan and CAR, where the strong Russian influence remained. However, after the death of the odious head of “Wagner” Yevgeny Prigozhin, control over security was transferred to the Ministry of Defense. This is a good sign, many experts say, given that the military is part of the official government structure, which means there will be more order.
Although Russia is not comparable to China in terms of investment in Africa, its military and political capabilities attract many African states. Recently, several states where France was previously strong have strengthened their military partnership with Moscow. For 2024, Russia has signed military cooperation agreements with Burundi, Madagascar, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Republic of Congo, Sao Tome and Principe, Sudan, CAR, Chad, Eswatini and Burkina Faso.
The last state, as well as Mali and Niger, announced their withdrawal from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), explaining that the organization has “departed from the ideals of its founding fathers and from Pan-Africanism.” At the same time, all three countries have one thing in common: they have recently started active military-political cooperation with Moscow, and the military is in power in them.
Russian President Vladimir Putin recently spoke by phone with Guinea-Bissau President Umaro Sissoco Embalo, interrupting a government meeting. It is worth noting that the conversation with the African president was announced by Putin's press secretary Dmitry Peskov as “important, but not the one” that journalists were expecting. Journalists expected a conversation between the Russian president and Trump, but in today's circumstances, the small state of Guinea-Bissau, where there are large reserves of bauxite and phosphate, is indeed an important interlocutor.
Washington will actively work with African leaders, trying to get them out from under Moscow's influence. But in Africa itself, Trump is expected to give specifics, not just promises. The head of the BRICS Research Institute in South Africa, Professor Fulufhelo Godfrey Netswera, tells Finam.ru that it is time for the African continent to “stop living on dreams and handouts.”
At the same time, as African columnist Kester Klomegah notes in a conversation with Finam.ru, Africa remembers well how Trump referred to the continent's countries as a “backwater” back in his first term. In this era of global development, Africa still needs the rich Global North to improve cooperation, especially in science and technology, agriculture and industrialization, to diversify the economy and link this to increased trade opportunities. This requires huge foreign investment. In case the US under Trump continues to treat Africa with disdain, it will only “open the door to strengthening the power of BRICS, the informal non-Western association in the Global South,” the expert believes.
In turn, a Russian diplomat working in an African country, who also has experience working in the United States, sounds a certain skepticism. “There is a palpable presence of China and Russia on the continent. Trump, as a calculating man, probably realizes that in order to regain his former influence, he will have to invest heavily, but I'm not sure he is ready to spread his energies and funds on this now. So far, Trump has not said anything that would indicate that his approach to Africa is changing,” says the Finam.ru interlocutor.
