Over the period 2018-2023, the volume of flakes and cereal consumption in the UAE increased by 12.9% to reach a record level of 10.5 thousand tons. The positive dynamics of the indicator value starting from 2020 is due to the growing popularity of cereal and quick breakfasts against the backdrop of a increase in the country's population (due to the inflow of labor migrants) and the recovery of tourist flow.
The volume of UAE imports of flakes and cereal products over 2020-2022 decreased from 42.0 to 38.7 thousand tons, which is explained by the increase in domestic production and higher prices for the products of a number of major supplier countries (first of all, the UK).
Nevertheless, the Emirates are currently unable to reach the level of self-sufficiency in flakes and cereals, and therefore actively purchase these products abroad. In addition, the UAE is a major regional logistics hub through which international companies supply flakes, cereals and other products to neighboring countries.
Flakes and cereals production in the UAE in 2020 decreased to the lowest value in recent years at 5.3 thousand tons (2.0 times less than in 2018) due to problems with the supply of raw materials against the background of COVID-19, after which a gradual recovery of output began. In 2022, UAE production of cereals and cereals amounted to 8.6 thousand tons, which is 30.8% higher than in 2021 and 4.1% higher than in pre-pandemic 2019.
The main share in the structure of flakes and cereals consumption in the UAE is occupied by flakes, which accounted for 42.2% (4.3 thousand tons) of total sales in volume terms in 2022. The second most popular category of flakes and cereals on the local market is children's ready-to-eat breakfasts with a share of 25.5% (2.6 thousand tons) in the total sales structure by the end of 2022. Ready-to-eat cereals are also in demand in the country - in 2022, the consumption of this product in the Emirates amounted to 1.9 thousand tons (18.8% of the total volume). At the same time, children's ready-to-eat breakfast cereals are the fastest-growing segment of the UAE flakes and cereal market, with an average annual growth rate of 3.1% in volume terms in 2018-2022 (flakes sales in the same period grew by an average of 1.8% annually, ready-to-eat porridge by 2.8%). Other types of flakes and cereals, including muesli, continue to be niche products for the country and currently have a limited presence on the local market.
The average per capita consumption of flakes and cereals in the UAE remains low relative to European countries, but is broadly in line with other countries in the region. Between 2018 and 2022, per capita consumption of flakes and cereals in the UAE increased by an average of 1.6% annually and is expected to increase by 2022. in the UAE increased by an average of 1.6% annually to reach 1.06 kg per capita per year at the end of 2022.
The major share (44.0% by the end of 2022) of the flakes and cereal market in the UAE has been held steadily over the past decades by the US-based Kellogg's, one of the world's leading manufacturers of breakfast cereals and porridge. The second in terms of sales is multinational Nestlé, which accounted for 28.0% of the market in 2022. Significant volumes of flakes and cereals to the UAE are supplied by the US-based PepsiCo (5.6%) and Post Holdings (5.2%), as well as Malaysia's United Malayan Flour (1.7%). The top 5 manufacturing companies accounted for 84.5% of cereal and cereal sales in the UAE in 2023.
In 2022, UAE flakes and cereals imports were 38.7 thousand tons valued at USD 111.1 million, down 4.3% (1.8 thousand tons) from 2021 in volume terms and 1.5% (USD 1.6 million) higher in value terms. In 2018-2022, the country's purchases of flakes and cereals in foreign markets grew on average annually by 0.02% in volume terms and 1.7% in value terms.
A significant volume of flakes and cereals purchased by the UAE on foreign markets is re-exported to other countries in the region, primarily to Saudi Arabia.
The UAE's imports of cereals and flakes in volume terms were dominated by products from the UK in 2018-2022. In 2022, the volume of exports of UK cereals and flakes to the UAE amounted to 9.6 thousand tons, which accounted for 24.7% of the total imports of this type of product into the country. The second place in terms of the volume of supplies in 2022 was occupied by India, which accounted for 15.8% of total imports of cereals and flakes. Also, some products were imported to the UAE from Turkey (10.2%), France (7.1%) and Bangladesh (6.2%).
In 2022, compared to the level of 2021, the UAE significantly increased purchases of cereals and flakes from Turkey (+22.8% or +731.0 tons), France (+18.8% or +436.0 tons) and Bangladesh (+19.4% or +390.0 tons). At the same time, imports from Great Britain (-14.6% or -1.6 thousand tons), Germany (-36.0% or -695.0 tons) and Poland (-26.1% or -390.0 tons) decreased significantly, too.
UAE imports of Russian flakes and cereals were generally at 0.1-0.2 thousand tons in 2018-2022. In 2022, the indicator amounted to 0.2 thousand tons (+20.0% to the level of 2021). The UAE mainly buys buckwheat in Russia.
The main supplier of cereals and flakes to the UAE in value terms in 2022 was the United Kingdom, which supplied products worth USD 38.6 million (34.7% of total imports in volume terms). Other major suppliers included France (8.5%), Turkey (6.2%), India (6.1%) and the US (5.2%).
Turkey (+37.4% or +1.9 million USD), Egypt (+34.1% or +1.4 million USD) and Bangladesh (+64.1% or +1.1 million USD) showed the largest year-on-year increase in shipments in 2022. At the same time, imports from Poland decreased significantly (-17.8% or USD -1.0 million).
The average import price of cereals in 2022 increased by 12.4% to USD 1,587 per ton. The most expensive products were supplied from France at USD 2,420 per ton (52.5% higher than the average price) and China at USD 2,365 per ton (49.1% higher). The most competitive price was recorded for imports from Lithuania at US$652 per ton (58.9% lower than the average price), Australia at US$713 per ton (55.1% lower) and Germany at US$760 (52.1% lower).
The average import price of flakes in 2022 increased by 1.6% to US$3,350 per ton. The most expensive products came from Spain at US$9,514 per ton (2.8 times the average price), Egypt at US$7,040 per ton (2.1 times higher) and the United States at US$6,643 per ton (98.3% higher). The most competitive price was recorded for imports from Bangladesh at USD 1,147 per ton (65.8% lower than the average price) and India at USD 1,168 (65.1% lower).
