Until 2020, the Philippine economy showed stable growth of more than 6% per year. However, the COVID-19 pandemic has affected the country's economy more than in other countries of the Asian region. According to the IFV, by the end of 2020, the decline was 9.5%, which is the worst indicator for the country since 1946. Nevertheless, already in 2021, a rapid economic recovery began, and GDP growth amounted to 5.7%, reaching 394.1 billion US dollars. According to IMF estimates, GDP growth in 2022 It amounted to 6.5%, while the analytical agency Oxford Economics estimates the economic growth rate of the Philippines in 2022 at 7.0%.
Such a rapid recovery is an expected reaction to the resumption of consumer activity, but by 2023 this factor will lose its impact on GDP growth. According to IMF forecasts, in 2023 the Philippine economy will grow at the level of 5% per year, while Oxford Economics assumes a lower growth rate of 3.1%. Nevertheless, starting from 2024, economic growth rates are expected to return to the pre-pandemic level.
In the structure of the country's GDP, the largest share falls on the service sector and industry, whose share in 2021 amounted to 61.0% and 28.9%, respectively.
The Philippines has gradually moved from an agrarian economy to an industrial and service-oriented one. In 1980, agriculture accounted for about a quarter of the country's GDP, but it has been declining for many years. In 2021, agriculture accounted for 10.1% of the country's GDP.
According to the IMF, inflation in 2021 was 3.9% due to the instability of consumer prices. In 2022, the inflation rate was estimated at 5.3%, which became a significant burden on the purchasing power of the country's population, leading to a tightening of the monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Philippines.
Nevertheless, in the long term, inflation is projected to decline and remain within the Central Bank's target of 2-4%. GDP by PPP per capita shows stable growth since the beginning of 2021. It is expected that the dynamics will continue until the end of the forecast period.
The country's development targets are: maintaining GDP growth at 6.5–8% per year; keeping the unemployment rate at 4-5%; increasing the share of employees in the private sector to 53-55%; raising average wages to 6 044 – 6 578 USD; reduction of the poverty level to 8.8–9.0%; preservation of inflation at the level of 2-4%; the ratio of the state budget deficit to GDP at the level of 3%; the ratio of outstanding public debt to GDP at the level of 51.1%.
