The COVID-19 pandemic gave an impetus to the development of the global and Russian vaccine market. The Russian industry's focus on import substitution and the accompanying government support led to an increase in the market share of domestic vaccines and antibiotics, as well as an increase in exports. In recent years, Russian vaccines have been actively promoted in the markets of developing countries in Africa, Latin America and Asia. Competition with international manufacturers such as Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZeneca is growing.
New vaccines are being developed, including those based on the creation of new platforms (mRNA, vector) against cancer, as well as influenza, HIV and tuberculosis. Research is underway to find new mechanisms of action of antibiotics.
Market structure (manufacturers, exports, imports, domestic consumption)
The main players in the vaccine production market are scientific centers that have developed COVID-19 vaccines: Gamaleya Center (“Sputnik-V”), “Vector” (“EpiVacCorona”), Chumakov Center (“CoviVac”). Along with them, a number of Russian pharmaceutical companies are engaged in the development of various vaccines, as well as providing facilities for their production, their leaders are Pharmstandard, R-Pharm, Generium (data for 2021), Binnopharm, Biocad and Nanolek.
Figure 1: Production volumes of vaccines, toxins, antitoxins (a, b, c) and antibiotics (d) used in medicine in the Russian Federation
(a) Vaccines, doses, thousand pcs.
(b) Vaccines, packages, thousand pcs.
(c) Vaccines, ampoules, thousand pcs.
(d) Antibiotics, tn
Source: Rosstat
Figure 2: Revenue of Russia's largest pharmaceutical companies that produce vaccines and vaccine components (RUB bln)
Source: company data for 2023; * - data for 2021
Russia is actively investing in vaccine research and development in an effort to strengthen its domestic pharmaceutical industry and reduce dependence on foreign suppliers.
The vaccines market in Russia is expected to show significant growth in the coming years, with Statista (based on industry participants) forecasting revenue in this market to reach $358.70 million in 2025. The market is expected to register a compound annual growth rate (CAGR 2025-2029) of 9.50%, resulting in a market size of $515.60 million by 2029.
In the human vaccines market structure, domestic production exceeded imports 1.7 times in 2022, and the trade balance was positive at 1.3 million units.
The best production performance is shown by the Northwest Federal District with an output of 18.2 million units of products.
Fig. 3: Growth rate of the vaccine market in Russia (mln $)
Source: Statista
Balance of exports and imports
In the last 10 years, Russia has exported more vaccines than imported them. Exports increased most significantly in 2021, when Russia began exporting its own developed vaccines against the SArS Cov-19 virus.
Figure 4: Exports and imports of vaccines in Russia, mln. USD
Source: Comtrade
France was the leader in terms of import supplies at the end of 2022 (more than 49%). In imports, the largest share is occupied by the low-priced segment with a share of 55.9%, the main supplies of the segment from the countries: France, USA, India. The high-priced segment is represented by the share of 31% mainly from the following countries: USA, Netherlands, Ireland. Kazakhstan buys most of the products of Russian exporters (more than 22%).
Fig. 5: Main importing countries of the Russian vaccine “Sputnik-V” as of January 2022 (mln units).
Source: Statista
Russia was to export 250 million doses of the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine Sputnik V to India, which was one of the main planned producers of the vaccine. In total, Indian companies planned to produce at least 1.152 million doses of Sputnik V per year. In addition, Mexico ordered a total of 24 million doses of the vaccine. As of January 2022, Sputnik V has been authorized in more than 70 countries. Russia applied for approval of the vaccine in the European Union in January 2021, while several EU countries have approved its use earlier, such as Hungary or Slovakia.
Potential of the Russian market of vaccines and antivirals
- Development of innovative vaccines. Russia is actively introducing quadrivalent influenza vaccines in line with WHO recommendations. Already this season 70% of children in the country are vaccinated with these vaccines.
- International cooperation. Russia, together with other BRICS countries, joins efforts in the development of drugs, vaccines and test systems, which contributes to the strengthening of the global healthcare system.
- Import substitution and technological independence. Russia has developed import-substituting technology for vaccine components, which reduces dependence on foreign supplies and strengthens national biological security.
- Further development of exports. By the end of 2024, exports are tentatively estimated at $324.4 million, according to Statista's forecast.
- Development of biotechnology industries. Modern biotechnological production facilities are being established in the country, which makes it possible to produce innovative domestic vaccines and increase their availability to the population.
- State programs to stimulate the production of vaccines and antibacterial drugs in Russia
State Program “Development of Pharmaceutical and Medical Industry”
The main goal of the program is to stimulate the production of modern, high-quality and affordable medicines and medical devices.
Within the framework of the program:
- support is provided for scientific research in the field of creating vaccines, antibiotics and other drugs;
- subsidies and grants are provided for the development of new technologies and modernization of production facilities;
- Import substitution is promoted to reduce dependence on foreign suppliers.
National Project “Science and Universities”
The project is aimed at developing the country's scientific potential, including biotechnological research and includes:
- financing of scientific research in the field of biopharmaceuticals, including the creation of new generation vaccines
- support for start-ups and innovative projects in the medical field
Pharma-2030 Program
Strategy for the development of the pharmaceutical industry until 2030.
Key priorities:
- Increasing the share of domestic medicines on the Russian market;
- creating conditions for the production of biologics, including vaccines against infectious diseases;
- support for the export potential of Russian pharmaceutical companies.
Import substitution program
The initiative includes:
- subsidies for the creation of domestic analogs of antibacterial medicines;
- support for biotechnological research to reduce dependence on imported active pharmaceutical substances.
Grants and subsidies for manufacturers
Federal and regional programs provide grants for:
- development of new drugs;
- clinical and research tests;
- creation of infrastructure for mass production of vaccines.
World leaders in production
Several key countries and regions continue to dominate global vaccine production in 2023, with production volumes driven by both COVID-19 vaccines and routine immunization regimens for diseases such as measles, polio, and influenza.
India
Today, it is the largest vaccine manufacturer in the world, producing more than 60% of the world's vaccines, including vaccines for routine immunization and vaccines against COVID-19.
Serum Institute of India (SII), the largest vaccine manufacturer in the world, has the capacity to produce more than 1.5 billion doses of vaccines per year.
In August 2024, India's Bharat Biotech announced successful trials of its oral cholera vaccine Hillchol and plans for its global launch with a production capacity of up to 200 million doses per year. Later that year, Indian manufacturers entered into an agreement with Gilead Sciences Ireland to co-produce generic lenecapavir, strengthening India's position in the generics market. And Indian healthcare startups such as Medikabazaar and THB are attracting investor attention due to their efficient logistics and operational chains, as well as the development of online healthcare services.
China
China is also one of the largest producers of vaccines, both domestically and for export.
In 2022, China's Sinovac Biotech shipped more than 2.9 billion doses of its inactivated COVID-19 vaccine, CoronaVac, worldwide. This makes Sinovac the largest Chinese supplier of COVID-19 vaccines in the international market.
China's vaccine market has grown significantly over the past decade and is poised for further expansion. According to Statista, the market exceeded RMB 75 billion in 2020, and it is projected that it could exceed RMB 200 billion by 2025.
Notably, the category 2 (rabies and influenza) vaccine market has seen significant growth, with sales revenue more than doubling since 2015. This trend is expected to continue, contributing significantly to the overall market expansion.
In terms of disease-specific vaccines, vaccines designed to prevent pneumococcal infections, meningococcal meningitis and diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis are expected to hold a significant market share. Changes in government policies such as revision of laws in 2021 allowing parents to have up to three children is also expected to impact the demand for vaccines.
Recent developments include international collaborations and investments. For instance, BioNTech acquired Chinese cancer drug manufacturer Bio in the U.S. for nearly $1 billion to expand its immunotherapy capabilities. Moderna is also exploring opportunities to introduce its mRNA technology and medicine manufacturing in China in an effort to capitalize on the country's vast pharmaceutical market.
United States
The U.S. is a leader in vaccine innovation, manufacturing, and exports, with a focus on both COVID-19 vaccines and vaccines for routine immunization.
Pfizer is known for co-producing COVID-19 vaccine (mRNA) in partnership with BioNTech - the company has successfully produced more than 4.5 billion doses of Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine in 2022, exceeding the initial forecast of 4 billion doses. Other major players in the U.S. vaccine market are Moderna: Developer of another mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine; Johnson & Johnson: (produced Janssen (viral vector) vaccine against COVID-19). Merck & Co.; Sanofi Pasteur and GSK are other key players in the U.S. vaccine market, producing vaccines for diseases such as influenza, shingles and HPV.
In a global comparison, it is worth noting that the U.S. is expected by Statista to generate the highest revenue in the vaccines market, with an estimated revenue of $29,970.00 million USD in 2025. The industry will be driven by technological innovations - such as mRNA-based vaccine technology, which enables faster response to emerging health threats. However, challenges remain: for example, mRNA-based vaccines against avian influenza are still in the early stages of testing and are not yet ready for widespread use.
European Union
The EU is a major producer, mainly due to the presence of multinational pharmaceutical companies. In 2023, the European Union has taken significant steps to increase its vaccine production capacity in preparation for future public health emergencies. The European Commission, through the European Health Emergency Response Authority (HERE), has established the EU FAB network by signing framework contracts with four vaccine manufacturers: Pfizer, HIPRA, CZ Vaccines and Bilthoven Biologicals. The initiative provides the capacity to produce up to 325 million doses of vaccines per year, including mRNA-, vector- and protein-based vaccines.
The largest vaccine manufacturer in Europe is Sanofi Pasteur (France), a world leader in vaccines against diseases such as influenza, polio and yellow fever. The company has opened a modern vaccine production facility near Lyon. The €500 million investment aims to rapidly switch between different vaccine production technologies to enable a rapid response to public health emergencies such as pandemics. The plant is expected to be operational in 2025, with a production capacity of up to 500 million doses of vaccine per year.
Other leading companies in the European market include GlaxoSmithKline (UK), which produces vaccines for influenza, meningitis, and shingles, among others; and BioNTech (Germany), known for its collaboration with Pfizer (US) to develop a new vaccine against COVID-19.
Leading pharmaceutical companies are collaborating with academic institutions to advance vaccine research. For example, GSK, in collaboration with Oxford University, has committed up to £50 million to the development of cancer vaccines, focusing on research into early precancer biology and vaccine-based prevention strategies. There is an increasing focus on developing vaccines against emerging infectious diseases such as Zika and Ebola. Pharmaceutical companies are investing heavily in research and development to address these global health challenges.
Overall, Europe is a major hub for both routine immunization and advanced vaccine technologies, including mRNA development platforms.
Figure 6: Revenue of the world's leading companies in 2023 ($ billion)
Source: company data
Global trends
Personalized medicine
Research shows that each individual's genetic characteristics and health status can influence vaccine effectiveness. This underscores the need to develop personalized vaccination programs that take into account individual patient characteristics to ensure an optimal immune response.
Reducing the use of old antibiotics and developing new ones
According to an October 2024 WHO report, increased use of vaccines against 23 pathogens could lead to a 22% reduction in annual antibiotic use, or 2.5 billion daily doses administered. This underscores the importance of vaccination in the fight against antimicrobial resistance. At the same time, the number of antimicrobials in the clinical trial phase has increased from 80 in 2021 to 97 in 2023. However, there remains an urgent need for innovative means to treat dangerous infections resistant to existing antibiotics
Biologics and nanotechnology
The use of nanoparticles and biomaterials to deliver active ingredients directly into microbial cells or into the body's immune cells. These technologies open new horizons for the development of more precise and effective vaccines and antibacterial agents.
Digitalization in R&D and manufacturing
Automation and the use of artificial intelligence (AI) in the development and testing of vaccines and drugs. AI helps accelerate drug discovery, predict efficacy and side effects, and optimize manufacturing processes.
Environmental sustainability and green pharma
The issue of environmental sustainability is leading to the search for greener ways to produce medicines, including vaccines. This includes using biotechnology to create drugs from plant sources or microorganisms, and reducing carbon dioxide emissions and waste in the manufacturing process.
The COVID-19 pandemic showed the importance of global cooperation in the field of public health. In the future, Russia as well as other countries and companies are expected to work more actively to ensure fair and equal access to vaccines and antibacterial drugs, especially for developing countries. These trends will help not only to improve the effectiveness of existing drugs, but also to create new opportunities to fight infections and improve the health of populations around the world.
