Last year, everyone was talking about two things that dramatically affect the market - these are AI and weight loss drugs Ozempic and Wegovy. In 2024, the health trend continues to gain popularity. Experts believe that the physical condition of the population has a direct impact on the economy, so governments have taken care of their recovery with new medicines.
Finam.ru analyst tells how competition in the market of anti-obesity drugs is increasing and how people's health affects economic indicators.
Viking Therapeutics is a new competitor to Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly
Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are the main manufacturers of the powerful GLP-1 class of drugs that conquered the world in 2023. Originally developed for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, they have proven highly effective in the fight against excess weight in clinical trials.
Increased demand for Novo Nordisk's Wegovy and Ozempic has forced it to ramp up production to keep up with demand. The Danish drug manufacturer's sales hype even contributed to the country's GDP growth in 2023.
Naturally, competitors soon began to appear on the market of promising drugs. Viking Therapeutics, Regeneron, Amgen and Zealand Pharma are currently developing their own GLP-1 weight loss drugs. And they already have their first successes.
So, on Tuesday, February 27, stocks of Viking Therapeutics soared by 91.84%, after the American pharmaceutical company announced successful trials of the drug on people who lost 14.7% of their weight in 13 weeks of research. On Thursday, February 28, their price has already risen to $ 85. By comparison, Novo Nordisk shares are trading at $122, and Eli Lilly is trading at $766.
Obesity treatment will help the US increase GDP
The United States is expected to receive the most benefits from treatment with new drugs, since a third of Americans have problems with excess weight. In addition, according to Reuters, half of US residents said last year that they were going to lose weight.
Goldman Sachs analysts argue that poor health clearly puts pressure on the economy, and improving health indicators thanks to GLP-1 drugs can reduce costs and increase productivity. According to the bank's estimates, GLP-1 drugs can add 0.4% to U.S. GDP if 30 million Americans take them.
The total volume of the US economy in the fourth quarter of 2023 amounted to about $28 trillion. If Goldman Sachs' optimistic forecast is confirmed, it means that GLP-1 drugs alone can increase the country's production by $1 trillion over the next four years.
According to analysts at Goldman Sachs, the loss of working hours and abandonment of work due to illness and disability, early mortality and informal care lead to a decrease in U.S. economic production by about 10% per year.
Improving the health of the population is projected to lead to good economic growth. However, the price may become an obstacle in the distribution of anti-obesity drugs. According to the non-profit organization 46brooklyn, in January Novo Nordisk raised the list price for Ozempic by 3.5% to $969 for a four-week delivery, and Eli Lilly last month raised the price for Mounjaro by 4.5% to $1,069 for a four-week delivery. It is worth remembering that the final price that Americans pay for medicines depends on their health insurance policies, and not on the list prices of drug manufacturers.
The British are struggling with mental problems, and Russians follow a healthy lifestyle
Each country suffers from a lack of public health in its own way. According to Bloomberg, in Britain, the crisis caused by poor health has led to an acute shortage of labor after the pandemic. Experts are sounding the alarm that it could become a long-term obstacle to the British economy and increase pressure on government spending. The number of people who are not working and not looking for work has increased by 700 thousand compared to the pandemic period. This tightened the situation in the labor market and increased inflationary pressures, which forced the Bank of England to raise interest rates to the highest level in more than a decade.
In 2021-2022, more than a third of Britons between the ages of 18 and 24 reported having symptoms of mental disorders such as depression, anxiety and bipolar disorder. Because of this, they may become less economically active. The number of young Britons who have lost their jobs due to poor health has more than doubled in the last decade and reached 190 thousand people. Joe Bibby, an expert at the Health Foundation, which funded the study, stressed that without concerted intergovernmental action, Britain risks getting a "lost generation."
In Russia, experts are more concerned about seasonal viral diseases. As the "Lenta.ru" writes, since January 2024, the country has been talking about tridymia, a simultaneous epidemic of three groups of viruses: influenza, SARS and covid.
In general, Russians began to follow a healthier lifestyle. As Kommersant reports, citing data from a survey by the Federal Scientific and Clinical Center of the FMBA, in 2023 only 44% of Russians had bad habits. For comparison, in 2020 there were 54% of them. At the same time, the number of requests for medical help to combat obesity in the country is growing. If in 2022 the average age of a Russian with overweight problems was 42 years old, then in 2023 he has already "rejuvenated" to 41 years old. Perhaps new anti-obesity drugs will be needed in Russia, for which the problem is becoming more urgent due to malnutrition and bad habits.
