After a five-year recession in 2021, the Angolan economy showed slight growth due to the recovery of the services sector after the Covid-19 pandemic, as well as the rise in oil prices on the world market. The GDP growth rate in 2021 Was 0.7%. It is expected that the economy will continue to grow steadily, which will be facilitated by increased investment in the energy sector and high energy prices. Considering that oil and petroleum products account for more than 90% of commodity exports
Angola, it is expected that an increase in oil production from 1.15 to 1.18 million barrels against the background of current oil prices will contribute to further economic growth in the short term. In particular, it is predicted that the growth rate of Angola's GDP in 2022 will be a record since 2014 and will amount to 3% with further growth to 4.1% by 2026.
Such a situation will allow the Angolan Government to increase budget expenditures to support the social sphere and further recovery from the pandemic while maintaining a budget surplus in 2023. At the same time, it is expected that the country will still remain dependent on external borrowing, although it will refuse to participate in the next IMF loan program.
In 2021, GDP per capita showed growth, despite a 3% increase in the population. It is predicted that in 2022 growth will be more confident and will exceed the figure of 6%, after which it will remain at the level of 3% in the medium term. It is expected that this trend will be supported by the growth of oil revenues, as well as the effect of economic reforms carried out in the period from 2017 to 2021 and aimed at improving the business climate, as well as further growth of non-commodity exports, the volume of which increased by 41% by the end of 2021.
The inflation rate in Angola has remained high since 2016. According to the results of 2021 This indicator amounted to 25.8%, while the level of product inflation exceeded 30% against the background of rising world prices, as well as the delayed consequences of the weakening of the national currency by 56% in 2019. It is expected that the strengthening of the exchange rate and the reduction of the VAT rate on essential goods will help to reduce the inflation rate to 23.9% by the end of 2022 and achieve a single-digit indicator (8%) in 2025.
According to the forecast, economic reforms aimed at expanding the private sector and reducing the role of the State will contribute to the economic development of Angola. Further increase in oil prices and stabilization of the national currency against the background of tight monetary policy of the Central Bank.
At the same time, high inflation, rising unemployment and dependence on imports of essential goods can be identified as the main risks.
The target indicators of the Angolan economy by 2030 in accordance with the National Development Plan of Angola 2018-2022: real GDP — $ 100 billion. The growth of real GDP is 4.1%, while the growth of the non—resource sector is 7.5%, inflation should be 6.4%, the share of private investment in GDP is at least 20.7%, the growth in the number of private businesses by 5% per year, the fight against corruption by tightening anti—corruption legislation and the responsibility of public servants, reducing unemployment, expanding the network of vocational training centers by 30%, increasing the level of electrification of the country from 36% in 2017 to 50% in 2022, reducing the level of greenhouse gases, implementing 19 low-carbon economy projects.
