The increasing demand for electricity leads to the need to increase production capacity. From 2010 to 2021, the capacity increase in the global electric power industry reached 58% or 2933 GW, most often as a result of the use of thermal, solar and wind energy. The capacity of hydropower facilities increased by 33% or 335 GW. Over the past decade, alternative energy sources, such as solar and wind, have been the most dynamically developing, their capacities have increased by 21 times and 4.6 times, respectively. Coal and gas generation capacities increased by 20-40% and were concentrated mainly in developing countries.
In 2021, the global installed capacity of hydropower amounted to 1,360 GW, or 17% of the total global electric power capacity. China was the leader in this industry, with 29% of the world's capacity. More than half of the global hydropower is located in five countries, including China, Brazil, Canada, the USA and Russia. During the period 2010-2021, China was the leader in the installation of new hydropower capacities, introducing 174 GW, which is about 50% of the global figure. Brazil, Turkey, Vietnam, India and Canada were also leaders in capacity installation. Russia ranks 9th with an input volume of 4.3 GW.
Most often, developing countries are leaders in increasing hydropower capacity. This is due to the growing demand for electricity and the desire to provide its market with affordable and low-carbon energy, which has significant socio-economic effects. Hydropower is one of the most "predictable" sources of energy in terms of liquidity, since it does not depend on weather factors. In 2021, hydropower was the leader among other types of renewable energy sources in terms of electricity production, accounting for approximately 15% of global production, which is 2.7% less than in 2020, but 23% more than in 2010.
Pumped storage power plants are an important and developing segment of the hydropower market. In 2021, their total capacity in the world was 165 GW, and according to the forecasts of the International Energy Agency, it will increase by 65.2 GW by 2030. A number of countries, such as India, China, the USA, Spain, Portugal, France and Vietnam have already set goals to increase the capacity of pumped storage stations. The growth of their capacity is associated with the need to regulate electricity generation and increase the volume of storage capacity.
Small hydroelectric power plants are also an important segment of the hydropower market. Their total capacity in the world was 78 GW in 2019, and according to forecasts, the market volume will increase by 24% by 2030. Small hydroelectric power plants can be used as an autonomous system, operate in isolated power complexes and be included in the operation of the unified power system. The Asia-Pacific region is the leader of this segment, with revenue of more than 35% of the global market.
Over the past 10 years, hydropower has been gradually losing its role in the global energy balance, despite the increase in installed capacity. In the period from 2010 to 2021, the share of hydroelectric power capacity in the world decreased from 19.3% to 16.0% due to the active growth of the capacity of other renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind. At the same time, the share of coal generation and nuclear power plants decreased even faster — from 33.5% to 27% and from 8% to 5.2%, respectively.
Norway (more than 90%), Canada and Brazil (more than 50%) stand out among the largest hydropower countries with the largest share of hydroelectric power plants in the energy balance. Russia is on a par with Turkey and China, having a share of 18% to 19% in various years. Other leading countries, such as India, France, Japan and the USA, have a share of hydroelectric power plants of about 10%. Nevertheless, the high share of hydroelectric power plants in installed capacities in Brazil and Turkey causes jumps in electricity generation due to the high dependence on water availability parameters in different years.
Some countries, including China, Turkey, India, Nepal, Indonesia and Brazil, have already announced plans to increase the share of renewable energy sources, including hydropower. Hydroelectric power plants can provide not only household needs, but also be a source of cheap energy for industrial enterprises. For small countries that do not have enough of their own fossil fuels and the financial means to buy them on the world market, the use of hydropower is becoming one of the few available sources of electricity.
In countries with large hydropower potential, such as Tajikistan, Guinea, Ethiopia, Nepal and Laos, the share of hydroelectric power plants in the structure of electricity production can exceed 70%. In some of these countries, such as Tajikistan, electricity is used for domestic consumption and can be an important source of export income.
According to the International Energy Agency, by 2030 there will be an increase in the installed capacity of hydroelectric power plants in the world by 17%, which is 230 GW. It is assumed that after 2030, the growth rate of capacity may decrease slightly due to a reduction in the volume of cost-effective hydropotential. More than half of the capacity inputs of hydroelectric power plants until 2030 will be connected to power plants with reservoirs, and pumped storage stations will account for another 30% of the input capacity.
However, large hydroelectric power plant construction projects require large investments, which can become an obstacle to their implementation in small developing countries. Therefore, the pace of commissioning of new hydroelectric power plants in China, Latin America and Europe is expected to slow down, but the Asia-Pacific region, Africa and the Middle East can partially compensate for this decline. It is expected that China will remain the leader in the introduction of hydropower capacity and will provide up to 40% of the world's capacity growth.
India, the second largest growing hydropower market, is also planning the commissioning of new or delayed projects, thanks to its long–term goals and financial incentives.
The growing demand for electricity, including that generated by low-carbon generation facilities, and the ability to export it, will become the main catalysts for the development of hydropower in Southeast Asia and Africa. For example, Laos and Nepal are planning to develop in the direction of electricity exports. Significant commissioning of hydroelectric power plants in sub-Saharan Africa is also expected, which will expand access to low-cost electricity.
In Latin America, where up to that time Brazil provided a large share of inputs, which exhausted the hydropower potential, it is expected to increase capacity inputs in Colombia and Argentina. Finally, in Norway, hydroelectric power already supplies the consumption of all households and most of the industrial enterprises. Existing and future hydropower facilities will provide another 2.3 TWh of energy.
By 2023, Turkey plans to reach the maximum potential of its hydropower, which is estimated at 32 GW. At the same time, the EU will develop hydropower plants and stable energy sources, such as hydroelectric power plants, in the light of the diversification of energy sources. In Canada, it is also planned to use hydraulic capacities to expand the possibilities of exporting electricity. Nevertheless, despite the growth of installed HPP capacities in different countries, by 2050 their share in the structure of installed electric power capacities and electricity generation will decrease. There are several reasons for this, including the outpacing growth of alternative energy sources such as solar and wind, as well as the relative decline in the growth rate of hydropower. Brazil, China, India and the EU are expected to see the largest declines in the share of hydroelectric power plants in the energy sector.
