Baby food includes all food products made for children's consumption, taking into account their physiological needs and body characteristics in the first years of life. Currently, there are two main categories in this group of products: conventional products specially adapted for easy digestion by a child (including mashed potatoes, cookies, juice, yogurt and soup) and special milk mixtures that act as breast milk substitutes.
A number of multidirectional trends are noticeable in the global baby food market today. On the one hand, against the background of a decrease in the birth rate, there is a drop in demand for these products in the largest consumer countries. On the other hand, there is an increase in disposable incomes and, accordingly, an increase in the requirements for the quality and nutritional value of products for children, which increases the supply of baby food with various food additives.
Asian countries are the largest consumers of baby food in the world due to their large population. In recent years, a decrease in the birth rate, primarily in China, has led to a gradual decrease in the share of Asian countries in the global market for these products, but demand for them remains stable in countries where relatively high rates of natural population growth remain (for example, in India, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Vietnam and the Philippines). It is expected that in the medium term, an improvement in the quality of life and the associated reduction in the birth rate in the region will lead to a gradual decrease in the consumption of certain types of baby food in volume. At the same time, according to forecasts, the sales of this group of goods in value terms in Asia will continue to increase, including due to the growing demand for higher-quality and expensive products.
The baby food market in North and Latin America is the second largest in the world. In recent years, the growth in the cost of baby dry mixes, which has been observed since 2021 and peaked in 2022 against the background of a shortage of finished products, has had a significant impact on the development of this segment. Due to the lack of a sufficient number of mixtures and an increase in their prices, the demand for this category of baby food in the United States has significantly decreased, while its sales in value terms continued to grow. It is expected that the further development of the dry formula market in America will be restrained by a relatively low birth rate, as well as the gradual abandonment of this product by many consumers from the United States and Canada in favor of breastfeeding. At the same time, if prices stabilize, a recovery in demand for baby food in Latin America is predicted.
Unlike other regions, the Middle East and Africa have been recording an annual increase in demand for baby food for a long time, which is primarily due to the high rates of natural population growth. Rapid urbanization and improved living standards in many countries of the region also have a positive impact on consumption volumes. The Middle East and African baby food markets currently have significant sales potential and, according to forecasts, will continue to show growth in the medium term in all categories, including dairy mixtures. However, the price factor remains extremely significant for local consumers, and inflationary costs have a significant deterrent effect on the regional baby food market.
There is a gradual decrease in demand in the European baby food market today due to a decrease in the birth rate and high inflation. At the same time, in specific countries of the region, these factors affect the overall trend in different proportions and are combined with local characteristics in different ways. So, in the UK, the primary problem is considered to be the increase in prices, including for dairy mixtures, due to which products are becoming less accessible to a significant part of local buyers. At the same time, in some countries, primarily in Germany and France, there is a more active shift in preferences towards organic products, especially in the category of ready-made baby food. In addition, many European consumers deliberately abandon formula milk in favor of breastfeeding and homemade baby food, which are perceived as more useful and affordable alternatives to products from stores.
The product category "baby food", as a rule, includes a wide range of heterogeneous products in solid, dry and liquid forms, and therefore it is advisable to consider the total volume and structure of the global market of these goods in value terms.
In 2023, global baby food sales amounted to USD 70.6 bln, down 1.6% of 2022. The decrease in the value of the indicator observed in recent years is primarily due to the negative dynamics in the Chinese market, which accounts for about one third of global sales of these products. Excluding the situation in the Chinese market, global baby food sales grew at an average annual rate of 2.1% in 2018-2023. In the structure of global sales of baby food by type, the largest share is accounted for by milk mixtures, the volume of sales of which in 2023 amounted to US$ 51.1 billion. Sales of ready—made baby food, including purees, yoghurts, soups, desserts and other non-cooking goods, reached 9.0 billion US dollars, dry dairy-free baby food, including instant and freeze-dried cereals and soups, reached 5.7 billion US dollars. The remaining $4.8 billion is accounted for by other baby food, represented by a wide range of products, including cookies, fruit, vegetable and berry juices.
It is worth noting that the share of dairy mixtures in the structure of global sales is decreasing annually. So, in 2018, the indicator was 76.1%, but by 2023 it had decreased to 72.3%, while the share of other types of baby food increased. In 2023, sales of ready—made baby food amounted to 12.7% of the global figure, dry dairy—free baby food - 8.1%, other baby food - 6.8%. The decrease in the share of infant formula is caused by a more rapid decline in sales of these products compared to other categories of baby food in China.
Due to the gradual changes in the child's nutritional needs, the composition of milk mixtures is adapted to the physiological characteristics of infants of a particular age. Depending on the protein composition, as well as the content of fats, carbohydrates, vitamins and minerals, products are classified into milk mixtures for children under 6 months, from 7 to 12 months and from 13 months. There is also a separate category of specialized mixtures used for feeding infants who are allergic to milk components.
Each category, in turn, is presented in both dry and liquid forms. Milk mixtures in dry form are a powdered product that requires further dilution. Liquid mixtures, in turn, are produced both as a ready-to-use product and as a concentrate.
The largest share in the structure of global sales of milk formulas is accounted for by mixtures for children from 13 months. In 2023, the value amounted to 19.4 billion US dollars (38.0% of the global value), of which 94.0% are mixtures in dry form. The share of products designed for children under 6 months of age in 2023 accounted for 27.5% of the market in value terms (14.1 billion US dollars). Sales of milk formulas for children from 7 to 12 months in 2023 amounted to 11.3 billion US dollars (22.1% of the global value, specialized mixtures — 6.3 billion US dollars (12.3%). Most of the milk mixtures are presented in dry form.
In 2023, Asia was the leading region in terms of sales of baby food. Compared to 2022, the indicator decreased by 8.1%, amounting to 36.6 billion US dollars. Due to the decline in sales in China, the overall indicators for the Asian region also show a downward trend, and Asia's share in the global structure is gradually decreasing. So, in 2021, the indicator was 58.2%, but by 2023 it had decreased to 51.9%. Unlike in Asia, there is an increase in sales of baby food in other regions. In 2023, the indicator increased by 7.0% in Europe, reaching 12.3 billion US dollars (17.4% of the global sales). In North America, sales increased by 3.2%, and the market volume was US$ 9.3 billion (13.2%). Sales in the Middle East and Africa region also increased: by 2.6% compared to 2022 to 6.3 billion US dollars (9.0%). In Latin America, the growth amounted to 16.1% — up to 6.0 billion US dollars (8.5%).
In 2023, Asia also accounted for the largest share in sales of dairy mixtures by region. Compared to 2022, sales in the Asian market decreased by 9.3% to 30.2 billion US dollars. The region's share decreased from 66.1% in 2018 to 65.8% in 2021 and 59.2% in 2023. Sales of formula milk in North America in 2023 increased by 2.6% to 6.1 billion US dollars (11.9% of the global value), in Europe — by 8.3% to 5.1 billion US dollars (10.0%). Sales growth in Latin America amounted to 17.0% to 4.9 billion US dollars (9.6%), in the Middle East and Africa region — by 2.9% to 4.7 billion US dollars (9.3%).
China is the world leader in terms of sales of baby food. In 2023, the value amounted to 24.6 billion US dollars, of which 20.8 billion US dollars were for dairy mixtures. The country's share in the structure of global sales of baby food amounted to 34.9%, while in the market of dairy mixtures the figure exceeds 40%. Nevertheless, there is a downward trend in the Chinese baby food market — in relation to 2022, total sales decreased by 13.2% (milk formulas — by 14.2%). The reason for the decline in the volume of the Chinese baby food market is the drop in the birth rate in the country. According to forecasts, demographic problems in the country will persist in the medium term, which will continue to negatively affect sales of the products in question in China and lead to a decrease in the country's share in the structure of the global baby food market.
The United States accounts for about 12.4% of global sales of baby food and 11.3% of infant formula. In 2023, the volume of sales of baby food in the country increased by 3.4% to 8.8 billion US dollars, of which 5.8 billion US dollars are milk mixtures. Despite the positive dynamics in value terms, the American market is facing serious constraints, including consumer distrust of breast milk substitutes due to the lack of proper product regulation by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). It is also worth noting that the cost of products was affected by the shortage of infant formula in the United States in 2022, which, along with high global inflation, led to a noticeable increase in sales in value terms.
The above factors, as well as the observed decrease in the birth rate in the country, leads to a decrease in demand for baby food, and a decrease in consumption of all product categories in volume is observed on the market. The increase in sales is primarily provided by an increase in the cost of products.
Mexico occupies 3.8% of the global baby food market in value terms, and also provides 4.8% of sales of infant formula. In 2023, the volume of sales of baby food amounted to $ 2.7 billion, of which $2.5 billion accounted for sales of infant formula. The Mexican market is showing positive growth dynamics, however, there are already a number of factors that in the medium term may lead to curbing the increase in indicators, the main of which are a gradual reduction in the birth rate, as well as government policies aimed at encouraging the use of breastfeeding for feeding children, especially under the age of 6 months.
Indonesia accounts for about 3.8% of global sales ($2.7 billion) of baby food and 4.5% of sales of infant formula ($2.3 billion). In recent years, there has been a significant increase in prices in the Indonesian market of the products in question, due to which cost indicators are increasing, while real consumer demand is not growing. Sales of baby food in Russia in 2023 amounted to 2.5 billion US dollars, which is 3.5% of the global value. In terms of the total baby food market, Russia closes the top five global leaders, while the share of milk formulas in the structure of Russian sales is relatively small (539.2 million US dollars in 2023).
In 2023, the volume of global import of baby food amounted to 944.2 thousand tons in the amount of 9.81 billion US dollars. In comparison with 2022, the value of the indicator decreased by 2.2% in volume terms and by 0.3% in value. In 2019-2023, global imports of these products decreased annually by an average of 5.6% in volume terms and by 3.0% in value.
The world's largest importer of baby food in volume is China, which by the end of 2023 imported 238.1 thousand tons (25.2% of total imports). The top 5 importers of baby food in volume also included the United States (4.6%), the United Kingdom (4.6%), Malaysia (4.2%) and Saudi Arabia (4.0%). In total, the 10 largest purchasing countries accounted for 55.1% of the world's imports of baby food in volume.
In 2019-2023, purchases of baby food in the USA increased most noticeably (by 13.9 times or +40.6 thousand tons), Malaysia (+80.0% or +17.6 thousand tons) and Turkey (+28.7% or +4.5 thousand tons). During the same period, purchases of these products by China (-33.3% or -118.9 thousand tons) and the United Kingdom (-33.3% or -21.7 thousand tons) significantly decreased.
In value terms, the largest importer of baby food in 2023 was China, which purchased these products in the amount of 4.3 billion US dollars (43.8% of global imports). The top five importers in value terms also included the United States (3.6%), Saudi Arabia (3.4%), Canada (3.0%) and the United Kingdom (2.5%). In total, the top 10 countries accounted for 66.8% of global baby food imports in value terms.
In 2019-2023, the main increase in global baby food imports in value terms was provided by the United States (20.7 times or +336.0 million US dollars), Canada (+35.5% or +76.0 million US dollars) and Malaysia (+64.0% or +82.8 million US dollars). At the same time, over the same period, purchases were significantly reduced by China (-19.5% or -1.0 billion US dollars) and the United Kingdom (-19.1% or -57.6 million US dollars).
In 2023, the global export of baby food amounted to 941.1 thousand tons worth 9.8 billion US dollars. Compared to 2022, the value of the indicator decreased by 2.5% in volume terms and increased by 1.7% in value. During 2019-2023, global exports of this type of product decreased annually by an average of 4.7% in volume terms and 3.3% in value.
The largest suppliers of baby food to the world market in volume in 2023 were the EU countries (52.8% of world exports), among which the Netherlands (16.2%), France (11.9%) and Ireland (9.0%) accounted for the largest volume of supplies. The top three exporters also included New Zealand (9.7%) and Switzerland (3.9%). In total, the top 10 suppliers of baby food to the global market in 2023 accounted for 84.3% of global exports of these products in volume.
In 2019-2023, the most noticeable increase was in the supply of baby food from Thailand (3.9 times or +16.9 thousand tons), Russia (+49.9% or +8.4 thousand tons) and the United Arab Emirates (+30.6% or +4.7 thousand tons). At the same time, over the past 5 years, the supply of other major baby food exporters has shown a decrease. Exports from the EU decreased most significantly (-18.8% or -114.9 thousand tons) and New Zealand (-42.7% or -68.3 thousand tons).
In the value structure of baby food exports in 2023, the main share fell on the EU countries (56.9%), among which the Netherlands (24.1%), France (9.4%) and Ireland (9.4%) supplied the largest volume to the world market. The main exporters also included New Zealand (16.7%) and Switzerland (3.4%). In total, the top 10 leading suppliers of baby food to foreign markets in 2023 provided 90.7% of global exports of these products.
In the period 2019-2023, there was a significant increase in the volume of exports of baby food in value terms from the UAE (+65.9% or +71.4 million US dollars) and Russia (+61.1% or +55.2 million US dollars). With the exception of Russia and the UAE, all major exporters of baby food to the world market have seen a decrease in supplies over the past 5 years. Exports from the EU decreased most significantly (-11.2% or -703.2 million US dollars), China (-58.3% or -229.0 million US dollars), New Zealand (-12.1% or -225.1 million US dollars) and Australia (-57.5% or -210.2 million US dollars).
The average import price of baby food by the end of 2023 increased by 2.0% compared to 2022 and amounted to 10,392 US dollars per ton. Among the leading importing countries, the most expensive products were purchased by China (73.6% higher than the global average price) and Vietnam (18.5% higher). The lowest purchase prices were recorded in Malaysia (48.6% lower than the global average price), the United Kingdom (46.0% lower) and Turkey (29.1% lower).
The average export price of baby food in 2023 amounted to 10,417 US dollars per ton, an increase of 4.3% relative to the level of 2022. The most expensive products among the leading exporting countries were supplied from China (2.4 times higher than the global average price), New Zealand (71.9% higher) and Australia (36.6% higher). The lowest prices in 2023 were recorded for supplies from Thailand (50.8% below the global average price), Chile (49.7% lower), Mexico (47.5% lower) and Russia (44.7% lower).
